Pois a nossa economista chefe deve estar por esta altura a roer as unhas...afinal a Alemanha está mal, a Belgica pior e enfim veremos como nós, em Lisboa (ou melhor eu estou em Madrid mas ja estou mal, segundo sabemos) vamos passar, com cresciemntos uma vez mais pouco acima dos 0% do PIB para 08 e 09.
Mas para que nao reste duvidas sra. Economista Chefe, deixo aqui um pequeno texto de Economia (repito Economia) para recordar o que significa uma crise global com Consequencias Globais (in Krugman, Paul, Blog from NY Times):
October 5, 2008, 8:15 pm
The international finance multiplier
Back in the day, economists used to talk about the foreign trade multiplier — international business cycle linkages via flows of goods and services. The basic idea was that since one country’s imports are other countries’ exports, a recession in one country would be transmitted to the rest of the world as slumping demand here led to an export plunge abroad.
That’s not what’s happening now, or at least not yet. We’re experiencing a global crisis, but a different kind of linkage is at work — call it the international finance multiplier. It operates through the balance sheets of highly leveraged financial institutions, which do a lot of cross-border investment. When these institutions lose heavily in one market — say, US mortgage-backed securities — they find themselves undercapitalized, and have to sell off assets across the board. This drives down prices, putting pressure on the balance sheets of other HLIs, and so on.
And so a crisis originating in Florida condos and San Diego McMansions is causing havoc for Greek banks. Financial globalization, it turns out, means globalized financial crises.
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